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国家彩票可以解决美国联邦债务吗?– Pros & Cons

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公共彩票历史悠久。从中世纪的凯撒奥古斯都(那里的票有奴隶,房地产和轮船的奖品)到欧洲的政府(主要依靠彩票来获得收入),国营彩票一直被证明是有利可图的。 不列颠百科全书.

毫不奇怪,美利坚合众国也有悠久的彩票历史。考虑过“voluntary taxes,”早期的彩票用于资助哈佛,达特茅斯,耶鲁和布朗等新学院。 1745年, 马萨诸塞州普通法院 passed an act allowing a 抽奖 to pay off costs defending the colony’的边疆和海岸。到1831年,八个州共持有420张彩票。

今天,彩票是美国最流行的赌博形式,每年的参与者是参观赌场的参与者的两倍。一种 盖洛普研究投票 indicates that nearly 50% of Americans buy state 抽奖 tickets each year. The majority of participants have a technical, college or post-graduate degree, earning more than $36,000 a year.

赌博的流行也已遍及全球,许多政府都在削减赌博。运行时间最长的彩票之一是 爱尔兰抽奖 从1930年到1987年,其收入使爱尔兰受益’s public hospitals. A state-run 抽奖 managed by the country’的邮政系统取代了抽奖活动,每周为政府资助的项目提供超过3000万英镑的资金。根据英国’s official 国家彩票网站自1994年成立以来,已为50万个项目提供了超过19.01亿英镑(合23.7亿美元)的资金。

根据 北美州和省彩票协会(NAASPL), more than $110 billion of 抽奖 tickets were sold in the United States in 2015. Roughly $33 billion of that was redirected to state and local governments. According to figures compiled by the 美国财政部,约占联邦政府的十分之一’公司税收的年收入(3440亿美元),以及个人所得税1.5万亿美元中的2%多一点。

With huge participation rates and billions in revenue, redirecting 抽奖 funds can make a significant impact. As the national debt continues to rise, many have called for a national 抽奖, with proceeds spent paying down debt.

Is it time to offer a national 抽奖 in the United States to retire the National Debt?

不断增长的国债

根据 圣路易斯联邦储备银行, 总数 美国国债 到2016年底将达到20万亿美元,比2000年增加了347%。许多经济学家在计算时仅考虑公众持有的债务,不考虑政府内部持股的影响(年底估计为5.5万亿美元)。大多数政府内部持股都在 医疗保险 和社会保障信托基金,以及联邦融资银行的证券。

在2000年,’的公共债务为3.7万亿美元,国内生产总值(GDP)为10万亿美元(债务占GDP的比重为37.4%)。到2016年第二季度末,债务总额为13.9万亿美元,GDP总额为18.5万亿美元,债务与GDP的比率为75.5%。哈佛大学著名经济学家卡门·莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)和肯尼斯·罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)在2010年宣称 研究 债务与GDP的比率达到或超过90%会导致增长放缓和通胀上升。

此后,这项研究因公认的数学错误遭到抨击,而众议院预算委员会主席保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)“went all in”关于有争议的研究,根据 国家。一种 2015年皮尤研究中心投票 指出,将近三分之二的美国人同意赖安(Ryan)的意见,并考虑消除预算赤字和偿还联邦债务是当务之急。

预算赤字对国债的影响

许多人混淆了 联邦赤字 与联邦债务。赤字或盈余取决于政府每年的收入减去同期的支出。当支出超过收入时,财政部发行债务以弥补赤字,从而增加了国家债务。自1969年以来,联邦债务每年都在增加。

由于以下原因,未来产生大量预算盈余的可能性不大:

  • 有限的税收收入增长。控制总统职位的共和党成员和国会两院都公开承诺 美国人进行税制改革 宣传团体避免加税。
  • 无法削减联邦支出。由于重建国家的各种费用’的基础设施,在国内外打击恐怖主义的持续国防支出以及自然灾害的救济,减少联邦支出是可疑的。
  • 持续的政治僵局。即使当联邦政府的三个部门(立法,行政和司法)由一个政党控制时,由于各党派之间的分歧和两年一次的选举,很少有关于采取持续行动减少赤字的协议。
  • 更高的联邦债务利率。自2010年以来,美国受益于低利率,因为美联储(Fed)试图从2007年至2009年的大衰退中复苏,因此平均利率为2%或更低。的 国会预算办公室(CBO) 未来十年,项目利率将几乎翻倍。

认识到的困难 实现预算平衡或盈余, the CBO has proposed 79 options to either increase government revenues or decrease spending. Surprisingly, the creation of a national 抽奖 and dedicating its income to debt repayment was not a consideration.

加利福尼亚州彩票

今日美国彩票

尽管美国人’由于对赌博的渴望,彩票在1800年代中期的吸引力有限。丑闻和政府腐败导致他们在1895年完全禁止了该国,尽管在有组织犯罪的保护下继续进行非法的数字游戏。

Then, in 1963, New Hampshire legalized a 抽奖 to fund their education programs. It was followed by New York four years later. In the 1970s, 12 states established lotteries, 17 states in the 1980s, and six states in the 1990s. An additional seven states approved lotteries after 2000.

Today, 44 of the 50 states offer a 抽奖 with the proceeds boosting state revenues. Three states –密西西比州,阿拉巴马州和犹他州–出于宗教理由禁止彩票,以及内华达州’s lack is due to opposition from casinos in the state. Alaska has yet to introduce a 抽奖 due to financial concerns about its viability in a sparse population, while Hawaii citizens have been opposed to lotteries.

人口最多的州–纽约,佛罗里达,加利福尼亚和德克萨斯州–占最大的销售额,对国家收入的贡献最大。根据 美国人口普查局, an average of 62% of each dollar in sales goes to 抽奖 winners, about 5% is spent on 抽奖 administration, and about 33% is sent the state government sponsoring the 抽奖.

Nearly all states with lotteries offer instant-winner and three- or four-digit games with reduced odds and lower payouts. Some tickets offer a second chance at winning after the main 抽奖 drawing is completed or a multiplied payout for extra fees. Some states have investigated or currently operate video games of chance similar to casino games in addition to 抽奖 games. Many have combined to offer extra-large payoffs, such as Powerball and Mega Millions. On January 13, 2016, three winning tickets split the 历史上最大的大奖:16亿美元。

Many states promote group play where individuals can attract players and manage 抽奖 pools. Advocates claim they are a way of increasing the odds of a win without increasing the financial investment. Some pools have won large jackpots. While lotteries encourage combinations, they also advise that each pool should be established with a written contract regarding participation, conflicts, and division of prizes between players to avoid future conflicts.

头奖疲劳

根据 今日美国, 抽奖 sales in 18 states fell during 2015, the likely reason being jackpot fatigue.

州财政部长Deborah Goldberg在证词之前作证 马萨诸塞州众议院筹款方式 在2015年1月“由于以下原因,目前没有动力参与游戏‘small’不到1亿美元的头奖。”

爱荷华州彩票的特里·里奇(Terry Rich)向 彩票委员会 2015年1月9日,博彩国家立法会议员委员会“small jackpots don’保持媒体的注意力,结果是减少对游戏的兴奋和关注。一旦中了大奖,就很难为下一场比赛进行宣传。”

国家彩票的机会

A national 抽奖 is likely to attract greater participation than the existing state or multi-state lotteries due to the following reasons:

  • 大头奖。在全国(甚至国际)销售中,优胜者的奖金经常应该超过10亿美元或更多。统计分析 LottoReport.com 表示每个图纸出售的彩票数量与累积奖金金额之间呈正相关关系–换句话说,随着累积奖金的增加,将购买更多的彩票。例如,2016年11月19日的强力球大奖3.2亿美元,在销售的最后一周吸引了近6,100万美元的门票收入。 2016年1月12日,15.8亿美元的头奖累积了12.7亿美元的门票收入。
  • 更多常胜者。虽然需要从69个号码中选择五个正确数字加奖金数字(5 + 1)的游戏获胜的可能性约为2.92亿,但伴随着较大奖品的更高门票销售会增加获胜和多个受益者的可能性。例如, 强力球奖金15.8亿美元 有三张中奖彩票,每张在加利福尼亚,佛罗里达和田纳西州。
  • 更大的所得税优势. Lottery winners in the states that participate in lotteries are usually exempt from state and local income taxes but must pay federal income taxes. Lottery winnings are taxed as ordinary income with the highest rate of 39.6%. The IRS withholds 25% of the winnings before initial distribution and collects any remaining taxes due at tax time (April 15th). As the sponsor of the 抽奖, the Federal Government could exempt all or a portion of the winnings from income tax, thereby increasing the net payout to the winner(s) and the percentage of total sales retained by the government.
  • 降低行政成本。行政费用和零售商佣金通常平均占门票总销售额的4%至8%,而零售商所占比例更大。由于大多数行政费用是固定费用 –工资,设备,设施–  they will decrease as a percentage of total sales as jackpots grow. Also, the number of unclaimed 抽奖 prizes –在2013年估计为20亿美元, 有线电视新闻网 –可能会增加。使用无人认领的奖金增加未来的头奖或抵消行政费用将增加联邦政府在门票销售中的份额。
  • 对政府收入的更大贡献。英国’s national 抽奖 estimates that the £30 million ($37.2 million) is distributed to government programs each week. Since the U.S. Population is 4.9 times greater than the UK’对于美国人口而言,美国政府每年的净收益约为450亿美元或更多,这是合理的。该估算值相当于2015年遗产税征收额的2.33倍或当年征收的公司税的10%。

国家彩票的机会

支持国家彩票的理由

Using 抽奖 proceeds for the public good is a common argument to justify the existence of public lotteries. Many states have earmarked the revenues from their lotteries for specific purposes, especially education or military veterans.

例如, 德州彩票 has contributed more than $19 billion to public education in the state and $70 million to veteran programs since 1997. Dedicating proceeds of a national 抽奖 to national debt repayment would help reduce the impact of annual deficits and accelerate reduction of the current punitive national debt.

Recognizing the appeal of life-changing jackpots, supporters point to the following advantages of a national 抽奖:

1.自愿参加

Politicians love lotteries as alternative ways to increase revenues without incurring voter disapproval that accompanies tax hikes. No one is forced to buy a ticket in a 抽奖 or to spend a significant minimum to participate. The average 抽奖 ticket costs less than a fast food hamburger or a movie ticket. In return, the buyer gets hours of happiness, dreaming of winning and imagining how he or she would spend the windfall.

2.对无望者的希望

Lottery foes complain that the 抽奖 disproportionately affects the poor as they spend a higher percentage of their income for tickets than those with higher incomes. This provides false hope to those in need. (There is a greater likelihood of being struck by lightning than winning the big jackpot.) Opponents of the 抽奖 overlook the chance, no matter how 小, that a person can spend a dollar and wind up a millionaire, and the possibility makes ticket buyers feel alive and hopeful, if only for a moment.

许多穷人知道,在某些方面,他们已经失去了“lottery”那就是生活,那艰辛的努力没有’t always lead to success. They are likely to work hard every day of their lives and remain in poverty, struggling to make ends meet. Those on the bottom of the recognize that a poverty-level wage is rarely a ticket to a better life, providing just enough to get by with no hope in sight to ascend the economic ladder. When you are poor, you buy 抽奖 tickets because “这是致富的唯一合法机会之一,”根据前华尔街交易员克里斯·阿玛德(Chris Amade)的说法 守护者.

只有狂妄的打折运气。约翰·马尔科维奇(John Malkovich),美国之一’的杰出人物演员,在接受采访时声称 纽约时报,他认为自己的成功是运气的问题,而不是准备或技巧。而在1988年 纽约杂志 唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)说,“生活中的一切都是运气。” The lure of the 抽奖 is that anyone can win.

3.小型企业的收入和就业

根据 沙龙, many 小 retailers could not remain open without the commissions on the sales of 抽奖 tickets. The 纳斯帕 要求that more than 210,000 retail outlets including convenience stores, gas stations, and supermarkets sold 抽奖 tickets during 2015. Revenues from commissions and administration of the various state lotteries support hundreds of thousands of 小 business owners and employees manufacturing and maintaining 抽奖 sales terminals.

Also, coding, testing, and managing 抽奖-affiliated software – as well as collecting, accounting for, and dispersing 抽奖 funds – require hundreds of 抽奖 personnel to support each of the 44 state lotteries. This adds up to plenty of jobs.

反对国家彩票的理由

Those who oppose lotteries do so for a variety of reasons, including immorality and economic discrimination. Plus, the 抽奖 is potentially a gateway to gambling addiction. A New York investment banker interviewed in 守护者 要求“乐透是愚蠢税。”其他人指出丑闻和欺诈行为导致了1800年代后期彩票的非法化。

Certainly, any attempt to create a national 抽奖 will energize the anti-lottery forces with the following claims:

1.对社会的负面影响

他们说彩票是赌博的一种形式。实际上,赌博是一种零和游戏,金钱从一个玩家转移到另一个玩家。内华达大学教授比尔·汤普森在接受采访时声称 PBS前线 彩票是金字塔计划,对社会没有经济利益。

负面宣传已被证明是有力的。在19世纪,路易斯安那州立彩票–在被召集后本杰明·哈里森总统的坚持下关闭“腐败的温床” in his 1890 国情咨文地址.

2.回归经济影响

自由工场, a conservative website, 要求that the poor are the greatest victims of state lotteries, spending a larger proportion of their income to buy tickets. 根据 沙龙 article, households with annual incomes of less than $13,000 spend about 9% of their take-home income ($645) on 抽奖 tickets. A 1987 杜克大学经济学家的研究 found that 抽奖 tickets are an implicit, regressive tax in virtually all cases.

3.税收,工资和工作损失

钱 spent on 抽奖 tickets –在大多数州免税–否则将用于应税产品和服务。卖票的零售商因客户购买低利润的票而不是食品,饮料和其他高利润的产品而损失了收入(并少交了税)。

此外,经济学家理查德·沃尔夫(Richard Wolff)在 每月审查, 声称“彩票从大批人那里获取了巨额资金,否则他们可能会把这些钱花在可以使人们就业的商品和服务上。”

4.对国家彩票的影响

A national 抽奖 would divert millions of 抽奖 dollars currently received by the states. The losses might imperil critical state programs, likely leading to increased state taxes or fewer services. State legislatures may consider the creation of a national 抽奖 a Federal Government overreach, initiating expensive court challenges.

反对者声称美联储正在利用“拆东墙补西墙” scheme, taking needed funds from the states to support the bloated, inefficient Federal Government bureaucracy. Reduced 抽奖 revenues on a state level will decrease lottery jobs and increase unemployment on a state level.

最后,反对者警告说,指导门票收入以偿还国债将被转移到其他不那么明显的用途上。他们指出了 国家赌博影响研究委员会 that suggests legislators often divert state 抽奖 revenues from their stated purpose to a state’s general funds.

根据弗吉尼亚众议院少数党领袖S. Vance Wilkins Jr.的说法,“There’除了欺骗人们以为我们在做某件事时我们在做一些教育工作外,别无他用’做某事。它没有’更改预算一分钱。它’s a sham.”

影响州彩票最后的话

国债是一个日益严重的问题,不会神奇地消失。解决方案很明显–通过提高税收来增加收入,削减福利和服务以减少支出,或两者兼而有之–虽然对美国不好 ’s politicians. The appeal of a voluntary tax such as a national 抽奖 may be irresistible.

但是可以筹集多少资金?

没有人知道,因为没有可靠的估算来估算美国赌博所涉及的总金额。牛津大学委托牛津经济研究报告。 美国游戏协会 据估计,位于39个州的984家合法赌场产生了2400亿美元的经济影响,并提供了170万个就业机会。据估计,每年将有近4000亿美元用于体育赛事,其中很大一部分是非法赌注 华盛顿邮报. While elected officials may hold their noses when discussing a 抽奖 alternative, the financial benefits are difficult to overlook.

Should the United States have a national 抽奖? If so, would you purchase tickets?

迈克尔·刘易斯
迈克尔·刘易斯(Michael R. Lewis)是一位退休的公司高管和企业家。在40多年的职业生涯中,刘易斯创建并出售了十家不同的公司,从石油勘探到医疗软件。他还曾是SEC的注册投资顾问,该国较大的管理咨询公司之一的负责人,以及美国最大的非营利性健康保险公司的高级副总裁。迈克关于个人投资,业务管理和经济的文章可在几本在线出版物上找到。他是父亲和祖父,他还撰写有关在西德克萨斯州平原上长大的非小说和传记作品,包括 风暴.

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